Market Pulse

Quarterly guide to everything policy and market related

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Market Pulse

Your quarterly compass to navigating markets, policy changes, and investment opportunities. Written in clear, actionable insights.

๐ŸŒŸ Welcome to 2025, Zillennial Fam!

We're excited to bring you the first edition of our Market Pulse for the new year โ€“ your quarterly compass to navigating the complex world of finance and global affairs. As we reflect on Q4 2024's transformative events and look ahead to 2025, we're committed to breaking down important financial trends and policy changes, translating them into clear, actionable insights.

๐Ÿ“ฐ Today's newsletter is sponsored by 1440 Media. Want fact-focused news between our quarterly updates? 1440's free daily digest cuts through the noise to deliver clear, unbiased coverage of what matters. Check them out via the link below.

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Overview

๐Ÿ”Ž What to Expect?

Weโ€™ll break down major developments in three key areas shaping today's financial landscape: Government & Policy, International Relations, and Economic Trends. You can navigate directly to the sections that interest you most.

๐Ÿ•’ Read Time: 15 minutes

This isn't a quick skim โ€“ it's designed for a thoughtful read during your morning coffee or commute. We respect your inbox and your time, which is why we send this newsletter out only once per quarter. .

๐Ÿ“… What's Next?

Keep an eye out for our next Traiblazersโ€™ Corner coming next week, and get ready for our financial planning app beta testing, launching soon!

Government and Policy

Economic and Tax Policy Changes

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • President-elect Trump's transition team detailed plans for major economic policy reversals

  • Treasury announced final IRS retirement contribution limits for 2025, including new "super catch-up" provisions allowing workers aged 60-63 to contribute up to $11,250 extra to 401(k)s

  • U.S. Treasury finalized rules making mineral mining and processing costs eligible for IRA production tax credits, reversing earlier guidance

  • Republican control of both chambers creates clearer pathway for business-focused economic agenda, though narrow margins may impact scope

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Regulatory Reality Check: Major policy changes must follow Administrative Procedure Act requirements - meaning 12-18 months minimum for significant regulatory reforms

  • Retirement Planning Shift: The expansion of catch-up contributions marks the most significant change to 401(k) rules in two decades, reflecting growing focus on retirement security

  • Legislative Timeline: While executive orders can initiate change immediately, actual tax code modifications require congressional action and formal review periods

  • Implementation Challenges: Narrow Republican majorities could affect the scope and speed of tax reform, requiring careful negotiation even within party lines

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • Watch for early executive orders that could signal policy priorities, but understand that substantial changes to existing regulations require formal review periods

  • Near-term: Take advantage of expanded retirement contribution limits if you're in the eligible age group

  • Medium-term: While major tax changes are likely, expect a gradual implementation process rather than immediate overhaul

  • Business owners should continue utilizing current incentives while monitoring potential future adjustments to corporate rates and credits

Financial Services & Consumer Protection

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • CFPB finalized its overdraft rule, requiring banks over $10 billion in assets to either cap fees at $5, cover actual costs, or treat overdrafts like other loans

  • FTC implemented "click to cancel" rule, making subscription cancellations as easy as sign-ups

  • CFPB proposed new regulations treating data brokers as credit reporting agencies under Fair Credit Reporting Act

  • FDIC introduced proposed recordkeeping requirements for custodial deposit accounts, particularly affecting bank-fintech partnerships

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Consumer Cost Savings: CFPB estimates the overdraft rule could save consumers up to $5 billion annually

  • Digital Transformation: New subscription cancellation rules reflect growing focus on digital consumer protection

  • Data Privacy Push: Expanding FCRA coverage to data brokers signals increased regulatory focus on personal financial data protection

  • Fintech Evolution: FDIC's proposed rules suggest tighter oversight of bank-fintech partnerships is coming

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • New overdraft rules could save you money on banking fees or change how you manage your account

  • "Click to cancel" rule makes it easier to stop unwanted subscriptions and save money

  • Stronger consumer protections could mean fewer hidden fees in financial products

  • FDIC's new rules might change how you interact with fintech banking apps

Technology & Data Regulation

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • Justice Department proposed Google should divest its Chrome browser following antitrust victory

  • DOJ released proposed rules protecting Americans' sensitive data from "countries of concern" including China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela

  • Federal Court blocked FTC's noncompete ban nationwide, marking significant setback for agency's tech industry regulation

  • AI oversight bills introduced with bipartisan support in financial services sector

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Big Tech Breakup Push: DOJ's Chrome divestiture proposal signals more aggressive approach to tech industry structure

  • Data Protection Focus: New rules specifically target six categories of sensitive data including genomic, biometric, health, and financial information

  • Regulatory Resistance: Courts continue to challenge agency authority, suggesting tougher path for tech regulation

  • Legislative Momentum: Rare bipartisan agreement on AI oversight indicates growing consensus on tech regulation needs

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • Google Chrome divestiture could change how you browse the internet

  • New data protection rules may better secure your sensitive personal information

  • Tech industry changes could affect your tech stock investments

  • AI financial oversight might impact your banking and investment app features

Healthcare & Benefits

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • DOL, HHS, and Treasury proposed rules to expand free coverage for over-the-counter contraceptives without prescriptions

  • DEA and HHS extended COVID-era telehealth prescribing flexibilities through end of 2025

  • Medicare telehealth coverage flexibilities set to expire December 31, 2024, with limited exceptions continuing

  • Traditional Medicare coverage of telehealth services from patient homes ending January 2025 unless Congress acts

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Coverage Evolution: First-time inclusion of male contraceptives in ACA preventive care marks significant policy shift

  • Telehealth Transition: Two-track approach emerges with DEA flexibility extension but Medicare restrictions returning

  • Access Challenges: Expiring COVID-era flexibilities could create significant healthcare delivery gaps

  • Congressional Action Needed: Bipartisan support exists for telehealth expansion, but legislative action remains uncertain

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • Expanded contraceptive coverage means potential savings on healthcare costs

  • Telehealth changes could affect how you access healthcare from home

  • Medicare coverage shifts might impact your healthcare options and costs

  • New insurance requirements might change your healthcare plan options

International Relations

Global Trade & Security Developments

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • China's espionage activities hit unprecedented scale amid slowing economic growth

  • Australia announces $4.7 billion U.S. missile purchase amid regional tensions

  • Power infrastructure report warns half of U.S. at risk of shortfalls in next decade

  • Chinese control over rare earth minerals tightens as Beijing takes over last foreign-owned refineries

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Security Concerns: Economic competition increasingly intertwined with national security issues

  • Defense Spending: Indo-Pacific allies increasing military investments as regional tensions rise

  • Infrastructure Risk: Growing concerns about power grid capacity for AI and electrification

  • Resource Control: Critical mineral supply chains becoming key geopolitical lever

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • Chinese espionage activities could affect security of your personal and financial data

  • Australian defense spending might boost U.S. defense sector investments

  • Power infrastructure challenges might affect your utility bills and device reliability

  • Rare earth mineral controls could increase prices of electronics and EVs

Middle East Dynamics

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • U.S.-brokered 60-day ceasefire deal reached between Israel and Hezbollah, requiring fighter withdrawal of at least 25 miles from border

  • Syrian government collapse ends Assad family's 50-year rule, creating regional power vacuum

  • Israel expands military presence into former Syrian buffer zone, announces plans for extended deployment

  • G7 leaders convene virtual summit to discuss Syrian transition as regional players seek to maintain influence

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Strategic Shift: The Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire represents first major de-escalation in region since October 2023

  • Power Vacuum Concerns: Syria's sudden regime change creates unprecedented regional security challenges

  • Regional Stability: Interconnected nature of conflicts means developments in Syria could affect broader Middle East peace efforts

  • Diplomatic Reshuffling: Multiple nations, including Russia and U.S., actively engaging with Syrian opposition groups

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • Regional instability could impact your retirement accounts holding Middle Eastern investments

  • Syrian regime change may affect prices of imported goods from the region

  • Regional instability could affect global oil supplies, which impacts gas and heating costs

  • Broader regional tensions might lead to higher transportation and shipping costs

Asia-Pacific Developments

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol impeached following brief martial law crisis

  • China launches largest maritime exercises targeting Taiwan, deploying dozens of naval vessels

  • Vietnam and UAE sign first Middle Eastern free trade agreement

  • Philippines and U.S. finalize deal to share classified military information in real-time

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Regional Power Shifts: South Korea's political crisis creates strategic uncertainty in key U.S. alliance

  • Deterrence Dynamics: China's naval exercises demonstrate increasing pressure on Taiwan

  • Economic Integration: Vietnam's UAE trade deal shows continuing economic diversification away from China

  • Security Cooperation: Enhanced U.S.-Philippines intelligence sharing reflects growing regional alignment

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • South Korean political crisis could disrupt supply of electronics, affecting prices of phones and cars

  • China's military exercises near Taiwan might impact shipping routes and raise import costs

  • Vietnam-UAE trade deal could bring more affordable goods from both regions to U.S. markets

  • Enhanced U.S.-Philippines cooperation might strengthen regional stability and Asian market investments

European Political Shifts

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • French government collapses after fourth no-confidence vote this year, Macron appoints Franรงois Bayrou as new Prime Minister

  • German coalition government falls, triggering new elections after Chancellor loses confidence vote

  • Moldova's pro-EU President wins re-election despite reported Russian interference attempts

  • Bulgaria and Romania set to join Schengen free travel zone January 1 after Austria drops veto

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Political Instability: Major EU powers facing unprecedented governance challenges

  • Leadership Transitions: Rapid government changes could affect EU's global positioning

  • Democratic Resilience: Moldova's election shows growing resistance to external influence attempts

  • EU Evolution: Schengen expansion signals continued European integration despite challenges

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • French and German instability could increase volatility in European stock investments and retirement accounts

  • EU consumer goods might cost more due to unstable euro and potential policy shifts

  • Moldova's pro-EU stance could create new Eastern European investment and business opportunities

  • EU expansion changes could create new investment and business opportunities in Eastern Europe

Global Financial Markets

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • S&P 500 on track for back-to-back annual gains over 20% for first time since 1998

  • Bitcoin surged above $100,000 following Trump's election, rising 40% since Election Day

  • Venture capital activity slows while private credit market hits $1.7 trillion as firms launch retail products

  • Record $1 trillion flowed into U.S.-based ETFs in 2024

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Market Momentum: Post-election rally reflects investor optimism about business-friendly policies ahead

  • Crypto Renaissance: Digital assets seeing renewed institutional interest amid expectations of favorable regulation

  • Alternative Investments: Traditional VC funding declines as investors shift toward private credit opportunities

  • Investment Access: ETF boom signals democratization of institutional investment strategies

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • Your retirement accounts and investments could benefit from strong stock market performance

  • Crypto investments might see significant value changes as regulation evolves

  • Startup funding environment could affect your job prospects or business financing options

  • More investment options becoming available through ETFs and retail private credit products

Labor & Employment

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • Union workers seeing significant wage gains, with 6.4% increase over 12 months ending September

  • Multiple unions rejected negotiated deals amid inflation concerns, including AT&T and Southwest Airlines

  • Minimum wage set to rise across 21 states and 48 cities/counties on January 1

  • Boeing announces 10% workforce reduction (17,000 jobs) in restructuring effort

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Union Resurgence: Labor organizations achieving historic wage gains through collective action

  • Bargaining Power: Tight labor market continues to benefit workers despite some layoffs

  • Regional Variations: Minimum wage increases concentrated in higher cost-of-living areas

  • Corporate Restructuring: Major employers balancing wage increases with cost-cutting measures

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • Union wage gains could influence salary negotiations in your industry

  • Strong union deals might mean higher prices for airline tickets and other services

  • Minimum wage increases in 21 states might boost your paycheck or affect local business costs

  • Boeing's 10% workforce reduction shows continued corporate restructuring that could affect job security

Housing & Real Estate

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • First-time buyers fall to historic low of 24% of market

  • U.S. homebuyers reach record median age of 38 for first-time buyers, up from 35 last year

  • Office vacancy rates stabilizing at record highs as companies adjust hybrid work policies

  • Wall Street firms investing billions in single-family rental homes targeting millennials

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Affordability Crisis: High prices and mortgage rates pushing homeownership further out of reach

  • Demographic Shift: Aging first-time buyers signal structural changes in housing market

  • Commercial Evolution: Office market facing long-term structural changes post-pandemic

  • Institutional Interest: Large investors seeing opportunity in rental market amid ownership barriers

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • Record-high first-time buyer age of 38 reflects harder path to homeownership

  • Wall Street's rental home investments could mean higher rents in your area

  • Office market changes might affect your workplace location or commute

  • Institutional investors in housing could affect your ability to compete as a buyer

Inflation & Consumer Trends

Quick Facts ๐Ÿ“ˆ

  • RealPage algorithm software estimated to cost U.S. renters an extra $3.8 billion in higher rents

  • Major restaurant chains facing financial turmoil with TGI Fridays, Red Lobster, and others restructuring

  • Americans under 40 reporting increased economic fragility despite record wealth levels

  • Plumbing and HVAC entrepreneurs emerging as new millionaire class as private equity firms acquire local businesses

Our Insight ๐Ÿง

  • Pricing Technology: Algorithmic pricing tools reshaping rental markets

  • Consumer Behavior: Price sensitivity driving shifts in spending patterns and dining habits

  • Generational Divide: Young Americans feeling economic pressure despite wealth gains

  • Industry Consolidation: Private equity reshaping traditional service industries

What Does This Mean For You? ๐ŸŽฏ

  • RealPage algorithm could mean higher rental costs in your area

  • Restaurant chain bankruptcies might reduce dining options and increase prices

  • Young Americans' economic fragility could impact family financial planning

  • Service industry consolidation might mean higher costs for home repairs and maintenance

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or an endorsement of specific investments. Always consult with a financial advisor to ensure your investment decisions align with your goals and risk tolerance.

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